Research note: A simpler AI timelines model predicts 99% AI R&D automation in ~2032
Published on February 12, 2026 12:13 AM GMT In this post, I describe a simple model for forecasting when AI will automate AI development.
Academic or research source. Check the methodology, sample size, and whether it's been replicated.
Published on February 12, 2026 12:13 AM GMT In this post, I describe a simple model for forecasting when AI will automate AI development.
TLDR
Published on February 12, 2026 12:13 AM GMT In this post, I describe a simple model for forecasting when AI will automate AI development.